Publications

  • Risk with bounds
    Sautner, Zacharias, Laurence van Lent, Grigory Vilkov, and Ruishen Zhang. Working Paper. Pricing Climate Change Exposure.

    We estimate the risk premium for firm-level climate change exposure from 2003 to 2019. Exposure is constructed from discussions of climate-related risks and opportunities in earnings calls. When extracted from realized returns, the unconditional risk premium is zero. This insignificant overall effect masks risk premium increases during the sample period, but with a slump in the financial crisis. Forward-looking proxies deliver an unconditionally positive expected risk premium, with subtle differences in the time series depending on the treatment of tail risks and opportunities. When the underlying model uses variance as the sufficient risk statistic, the premium gradually increases over time. When the model considers tails, the premium declines after 2015, because investors now link climate change exposure to higher opportunities and lower crash risk. This finding arises as the priced part of the risk premium primarily originates from climate-related opportunity shocks rather than downside physical or regulatory shocks.

  • Climate Change by country
    Sautner, Zacharias, Laurence van Lent, Grigory Vilkov, and Ruishen Zhang. Working Paper. Firm-level Climate Change Exposure.

    We introduce a method that identifies firm-level climate change exposures from conversation in earnings conference calls of more than 10,000 firms from 34 countries between 2002 and 2019. The method captures exposures related to opportunity, physical, and regulatory shocks associated with climate change. The exposure measures exhibit cross-sectional and time-series variations which align with reasonable priors, and are better in capturing firm-level variation than carbon intensities or ratings. The exposure measures relate to economic factors that prior work has identified as important correlates of climate change exposure (e.g., public climate attention). Exposure to regulatory shocks negatively correlates with firm valuations, but only in recent years.

  • analysts
    Sautner, Zacharias, Laurence van Lent, Grigory Vilkov, and Ruishen Zhang. In Preparation. Climate Change Analysts.
Content

Open Science

We are committed to the principles of Open Science and make all firm-level Climate Change data produced by our team freely available for researchers, policy-makers and the general public.

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